Live
In-play scores, recent results and upcoming kickoffs, refreshed while a game is actually on.
The broadcast desk, explained
From bookmaker odds
to probabilities
The terminal doesn't guess. It takes the market's own prices, strips out the bookmaker's margin to recover fair probabilities, then fits a goal model to read off every scoreline and goal market. Here's the whole pipeline — and what every number means.
I
The pipeline
Four stages. Every figure on the dashboard is the output of this exact sequence.
- 01
Pull the odds
Every market starts as real bookmaker prices. For each fixture we read the moneyline (home/draw/away) from every bookmaker that prices it, then average them into a consensus — more books, more reliable.
source · The Odds API - 02
Remove the vig
Bookmakers price every market slightly above 100% — that overround is their margin. We strip it out (“de-vig”) so the probabilities are fair and sum to exactly 100%. This is the single most important step.
method · de-vig - 03
Fit a goal model
For each fixture we solve for the pair of Poisson scoring rates whose implied win/draw/loss best matches the fair market. That score matrix gives us every goal market — over/under, BTTS, clean sheets, the most-likely scoreline and the full correct-score grid.
model · Poisson - 04
Render the desk
The dashboard consumes normalised JSON from server-side routes, so the interface is identical whether the data is live or sample. Upstream calls are cached and shared across visitors to respect the free quota.
output · the terminal
II
The tabs
Eight views onto the same de-vigged consensus and goal model.
Matches
Per-fixture win/draw/loss, expected goals, over/under lines, clean sheets and the correct-score grid.
Winner
Every team's probability of lifting the trophy, de-vigged from the outright market.
Predictor
Pit any two teams — even unscheduled — through the same goal model, with a neutral-venue toggle.
Goal Threat
Players ranked by their chance to score in the next fixture, from anytime-goalscorer odds.
Bets
A backtest of the model's flat-stake picks against real settled results — honest P&L, not a sales pitch.
Edge
Where the fair price beats the best bookmaker price: positive expected-value spots from line shopping.
Groups
Group standings and qualification context for the tournament structure.
III
What the numbers mean
Every term on a match card, in plain language. The same definitions power the in-app tooltips.
- Win / Draw / LossW/D/L
- The chance the home team wins, the match is drawn, or the away team wins. The three add up to 100% — they're a de-vigged consensus of bookmaker moneyline odds.
- Expected goalsxG
- The average number of goals the model expects each team to score in this match. It's the scoring rate that feeds every goal market below — not a prediction of the exact final score.
- Both teams to scoreBTTS
- The probability that both teams score at least one goal (i.e. the final score is not a clean sheet for either side).
- Clean sheetCS
- The probability a team concedes zero goals — i.e. keeps a clean sheet. 'CS BRA' is the chance Brazil's opponent fails to score.
- Over / UnderO2.5
- The probability the two teams combine for more than a given number of goals. 'O2.5' is the chance of 3 or more total goals; the Under is simply 100% minus the Over.
- Most likely scorelineMost likely scoreline
- The single exact score with the highest probability under the model. Even the likeliest scoreline is usually well under 20% — football is high-variance, so treat it as the modal guess, not a forecast.
- Correct-score gridCorrect-score grid
- A heatmap of every exact scoreline's probability (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Brighter cells are more likely; it's the full picture the 'most likely scoreline' is drawn from.
- De-vigged (vig removed)VIG
- Bookmakers price every market slightly above 100% — that overround is their margin (the 'vig'). We strip it out so the probabilities are fair and sum to exactly 100%. The 'VIG' figure is how much was removed.
- Bookmaker consensusbooks
- These numbers aren't one bookmaker's view — they're an average across every bookmaker that priced the market. 'N books' is how many fed this fixture; more books means a more reliable consensus.
- Consensus odds (decimal)ODDS
- The actual decimal price a bet would get, averaged across bookmakers — still including the margin. Decimal odds of 2.50 means a winning £1 stake returns £2.50 (£1.50 profit). These are the real prices behind the de-vigged percentages.
- Win probabilityWin %
- Each team's chance of winning the game, from a de-vigged consensus of bookmaker moneylines. The NFL market is two-way (no draw priced), so the two percentages add up to 100%. The split bar underneath shows the same number visually — the centre tick is 50/50.
- Point spreadSpread
- The bookmakers' points handicap for the game, shown against the home team. 'Chiefs -3.5' means the market makes the Chiefs a 3.5-point favourite: they must win by 4+ to 'cover'. A plus number means the home side is the underdog and can lose by up to that many points and still cover.
- Cover probabilityCover %
- The chance the home team beats the spread — wins by more than the handicap — de-vigged from the spread market's two prices. It hovers near 50% by design: bookmakers set the line so both sides are roughly a coin flip.
- Game total (over/under)O/U
- The market line for the two teams' combined points, priced as Over or Under. 'O 44.5 52%' means a 52% de-vigged chance the teams combine for 45+ points. Higher totals mean the market expects a shootout; lower, a defensive grind.
- Model pickModel pick
- The side the de-vigged bookmaker consensus makes the favourite, with its win probability. Because these probabilities come from the market itself, betting the pick at market prices has no built-in edge — it's a read on expectations, not betting advice.
- Playoff seedSeed
- The team's current playoff position in its conference: seeds 1–4 go to the four division winners (ordered by record), seeds 5–7 to the three best non-winners (wild cards). Seven teams per conference make the playoffs; the 1 seed gets the only first-round bye.
- Point differential+/-
- Season points scored minus points allowed. A positive number means the team has outscored its opponents overall — a steadier quality signal than the win-loss record, which can swing on close games.
- Anytime touchdownAnytime TD
- The probability a player scores a touchdown at any point in their next game, de-vigged from bookmaker anytime-TD props. Rushing and receiving TDs count; a quarterback's passing TDs do not.
IV
The honest part
- No secret edge. The model is built from de-vigged market odds, so it largely agrees with the market. It measures probability and variance — not a way to beat the bookmaker.
- Football is high-variance. Even the single most-likely scoreline usually sits under 20%. Treat every figure as a distribution, not a forecast.
- Live vs sample.A free data quota powers the live numbers. When it's reached, sections fall back to clearly-labelled sample data and the badge says so — nothing is silently faked.
- Not betting advice. This is an information and entertainment project.