What it unlocks
The live boards, the World Cup archive and your account page. The landing page, the method page, the results record and the golf board are open to everyone — the gate is on the working boards, not on the evidence.
Every moving part, explained
How everything
works
The short version: we read what bookmakers are charging for a game, strip out their margin to recover the real probability, and write that number down before kickoff so it can be graded afterwards. While the game is playing we keep pricing it, and if a call we published gets strongly ahead we tell you — because that is when a cash-out is worth taking. Games no bookmaker is quoting yet get a rating of our own, built from results, and it is always labelled as such. Everything below is the long version, including the parts that are switched off and why.
I
The NFL pipeline
Six stages. Every number on the board is the output of this exact sequence, and each stage names the feed it came from.
- 01
Read the schedule
Every game of the season — the Hall of Fame game, three preseason weeks, the regular season and the play-offs — with its stage, week, quarter scores and live clock. This is the backbone: it describes a whole season, which an odds feed cannot, because a bookmaker only lists what it is currently pricing.
source · API-Sports - 02
Take the market price
Every bookmaker the feed carries for a game is used — Bet365, Pinnacle, Betfair, Marathon, BetVictor, SBO and 1xBet have all appeared, and the count moves game to game. Nothing is filtered: the board averages whichever books are quoting, and the “N books” figure beside a price is how many fed that particular game. We average them in implied-probability space rather than averaging the odds themselves, which would bias the result. One measured limitation: books only start quoting about a day or two before kickoff, so most of the season carries no market price at any given moment.
source · API-Sports odds - 03
Remove the vig
A bookmaker prices a two-way market to about 104-108%, not 100%. That overround is their margin, and it is the reason raw odds overstate every outcome. We strip it out so the probabilities are fair and sum to exactly 100%. This is the single most important step, and it is what separates a price from a probability.
method · de-vig - 04
Rate the rest ourselves
A game no book is quoting still gets a number, from an Elo rating built only from completed results — margin of victory counted logarithmically so one blowout cannot dominate a season, last season regressed towards the mean and carried forward, preseason weighted at a quarter because starters sit. It is capped at 95%, because no football game is a certainty. It is shown marked est and never blended into a market price.
model · Elo power ratings - 05
Write the call down
Before kickoff, the board's read is stored in the database: the side, the probability, the lines and what each signal said. Separately, as the game approaches, the last price we see is stored as the closing line. The database refuses a closing price once kickoff has passed, so a number seen after the whistle can never be recorded as one seen before it.
method · capture - 06
Grade it in public
Each finished game is settled against the real final score and scored by Brier — the squared error of the stated probability, where 0.250 is a coin flip. Calls stored before kickoff are labelled as captured; older ones, priced after the fact from odds that outlive the game, are labelled as reconstructions. Both are published, including when the number is bad.
output · the record
II
The alert, on a real game
Stage 05 stores a call before kickoff. This is what that buys you once the game is being played — the same live model, replayed against the real scoring plays, including the ones where it stayed quiet.
Patriots at Jaguars
Before kickoff the board called Jaguars at 52%. Here is what happened next.
- Q2 13:25Patriots 0–7 JaguarsJaguars 75%+22pp
Alert fires — cash-out window open
“We called Jaguars at 52% before kickoff. They are now 75% to win it. If you took that call, your sportsbook's cash-out is likely showing a strong number right now.”
Final: Patriots 6–35 Jaguars.
Recomputed from the same live model that runs in production, against the real scoring plays of this game. An alert reports a position, not advice — cash-out happens at your sportsbook. 21+ where permitted.
III
When an alert fires, and when it doesn't
Three conditions, all required. Each one exists to rule out a different way of being annoying or wrong.
- 01
The position has to be in profit
A bet returns the ratio between the price you took and the price now. So a call is worth banking exactly when our live model puts it above the probability we published before kickoff — at that point cashing out returns more than the stake, and below it less. No absolute level is required: a call made at 45% and now running at 55% is in profit, and one made at 85% and still at 85% is not, however commanding it looks. A floor of 52% is also applied.
floor · 52% - 02
It has to have improved on what we published
At least 7 percentage points clear of the probability we gave it before kickoff, which keeps windows rare and each one substantial.
margin · +7pp - 03
The game has to still be running
Cash-out only exists before the final whistle. Once a game ends the bet simply settles and there was never a decision to make, so an alert then would be an email about something you cannot act on.
rule · in play only
IV
Your account, and what we keep
What we store
An email address and a password. The password is hashed with bcrypt inside the database and never reaches this application, so a compromise of the site cannot reveal it. There is no name, no payment detail and no tracking profile.
How the session works
Signing in sets a cookie signed with a secret only the server holds. Nothing about the session is stored server-side, and the cookie cannot be forged or replayed against the database directly.
What alerts would mean
Cash-out alerts are built but switched off, and no email has ever been sent. Turning them on is a deliberate act, not a side effect of a deploy — and when it happens it sends one message per game, never a repeat of the same one.
V
The golf board
A separate board with a separate source, and one important difference worth stating plainly.
Where it comes from
Data Golf, which supplies the tournament field, each player's chance of winning before and during the tournament, and the live leaderboard during a round.
Why it is not de-vigged
The probabilities in that feed sum to exactly 1.0, which means they are a model's output rather than a set of bookmaker prices. There is no margin in them to strip, so de-vigging would be meaningless — and the board says model rather than market for that reason.
How an outright field is handled
Where a real bookmaker field is priced, a 150-player market cannot be de-vigged by simple proportion the way a two-way market can. It is solved with the power method: raising every implied probability to an exponent found by bisection until the field sums to one.
What it does not have
No capture, no closing lines and no cash-out alerts. Those are built on the NFL board and have not been extended here, so the golf record is a live read rather than a graded one.
VI
The college board
The same machinery as the NFL board pointed at a far bigger, far more thinly priced season.
Same model, different league
College football is the same two-way market as the NFL — no draw — so the de-vig, the goal-free win probability and the capture path are shared rather than rewritten. What is new is a normaliser: this feed uses its stage field to name the division rather than the season phase, and a college week 19 is a late week rather than a play-off round.
Why only FBS
The season carries 1,679 games across FBS, FCS and Division II/III. Only FBS is priced by bookmakers in any depth, so the board takes those 874 and leaves the rest — a game nobody quotes is a game the board can say nothing about.
Coverage is the first number
This feed quotes a minority of the slate, including real FBS matchups that bookmakers certainly price. So the record reports how many finished games could be graded at all, beside how many were called right. Unpriced games count as neither hits nor misses: a board can always look more accurate by saying less.
When a price appears
Roughly a day or two before kickoff, not weeks ahead. That is why the board is driven on a schedule rather than by whoever happens to visit — the window in which a call can honestly be stored is narrow, and a Saturday slate resolves inside an afternoon.
VII
The World Cup archive
A different sport and a different model. The tournament is over, so this archive is a finished record rather than a live board — and because football has a draw, its market is three-way and a goal model does work the NFL never needs.
- 01
Pull the odds
Every market starts as real bookmaker prices. For each fixture we read the moneyline (home/draw/away) from every bookmaker that prices it, then average them into a consensus — more books, more reliable.
source · The Odds API - 02
Remove the vig
Bookmakers price every market slightly above 100% — that overround is their margin. We strip it out (“de-vig”) so the probabilities are fair and sum to exactly 100%. This is the single most important step.
method · de-vig - 03
Fit a goal model
For each fixture we solve for the pair of Poisson scoring rates whose implied win/draw/loss best matches the fair market. That score matrix gives us every goal market — over/under, BTTS, clean sheets, the most-likely scoreline and the full correct-score grid.
model · Poisson - 04
Render the desk
The dashboard consumes normalised JSON from server-side routes, so the interface is identical whether the data is live or sample. Upstream calls are cached and shared across visitors to respect the free quota.
output · the board
VIII
The tabs
Eight views onto the same de-vigged consensus and goal model.
Live
In-play scores, recent results and upcoming kickoffs, refreshed while a game is actually on.
Matches
Per-fixture win/draw/loss, expected goals, over/under lines, clean sheets and the correct-score grid.
Winner
Every team's probability of lifting the trophy, de-vigged from the outright market.
Predictor
Pit any two teams — even unscheduled — through the same goal model, with a neutral-venue toggle.
Goal Threat
Players ranked by their chance to score in the next fixture, from anytime-goalscorer odds.
Bets
A backtest of the model's flat-stake picks against real settled results — honest P&L, not a sales pitch.
Edge
Where the fair price beats the best bookmaker price: positive expected-value spots from line shopping.
Groups
Group standings and qualification context for the tournament structure.
IX
Where the data comes from
Every tab on both boards, and the feed behind it — including the ones running on sample data. This is the same text the info point beside each board shows, so the two can't drift apart.
NFL board
- BoardScores and odds from API-Sports
- One feed does all of it. API-Sports' American Football endpoint carries the whole calendar — the Hall of Fame game, all three preseason weeks, the regular season and the play-offs — and states each game's stage, week, quarter scores and live clock outright. The same feed carries prices from five bookmakers: Bet365, Pinnacle, Marathon, BetVictor and 1xBet, quoting the moneyline (Home/Away), the handicap (Asian Handicap) and the game total (Over/Under). We average those in implied-probability space and strip the bookmaker margin out, so what you see sums to exactly 100% rather than the 104-108% a book actually prices. The bookmaker count on each game tells you how many were behind that number. One honest limitation, measured rather than assumed: books only start quoting a game about a day or two before kickoff. Five were quoting a game eleven hours out and none were quoting the games three days out. A game nobody is quoting yet still appears, carrying our own power rating instead — marked with a ~ as an estimate, and never mixed into the market number, because a rating built from scorelines and a price built from money are different kinds of claim. Play-off fixtures stay off the board until the teams are known.
- StandingsAPI-Sports, falling back to ESPN — live standings
- Records, points and streaks come from API-Sports' American Football feed, cached for an hour, with ESPN's public standings as a fallback if that plan does not cover the running season. Note what the table shows before the season opens — these are preseason records, because that is the phase being played; the board switches to regular-season records the moment week 1 starts, and preseason results never carry into them. The 1–7 playoff seeds are computed here rather than taken from a feed: four division winners ranked by win percentage, then the three best remaining teams per conference, the same rule for live and sample rows alike.
World Cup board
- LiveAPI-Football — live fixtures feed
- Scores come from API-Football (/fixtures), including the live elapsed minute, and refresh automatically while this tab is open. The Odds API scores feed is a fallback.
- MatchesThe Odds API — bookmaker H2H, de-vigged
- Match win/draw/loss probabilities come from a de-vigged consensus of bookmaker moneyline (H2H) odds. Goal and scoreline markets are read off a Poisson model fitted to that same consensus.
- GroupsAPI-Football — group standings
- Group tables come straight from API-Football (/standings) and update as results land. The top two of each four-team group advance.
- WinnerThe Odds API — outright winner market, de-vigged
- Tournament-winner odds are a de-vigged consensus of the 'FIFA World Cup Winner' outright market across every available bookmaker.
- PredictorModel — Poisson over de-vigged team strengths
- For unscheduled pairings there is no direct market, so team strengths are derived from the de-vigged outright odds and run through the same Poisson model used everywhere else.
- Goal ThreatAPI-Football — tournament top scorers
- The leaderboard is real top-scorer data from API-Football (/players/topscorers), ranked by goals then assists. If unavailable it falls back to The Odds API anytime-goalscorer probabilities.
- BetsBacktest: API-Football · live tracker: The Odds API
- The backtest replays finished WC2026 fixtures against their real pre-match consensus odds (captured offline from API-Football) through the same tested engine. The live tracker settles model-favourite bets against live results from The Odds API.
- EdgeThe Odds API — best price vs de-vigged consensus
- The value list compares every bookmaker's best price against the sharp de-vigged consensus for the same outcome, and shows only those where the price beats fair value (+EV). It shares the matches odds cache, so it costs no extra quota. Alongside it, the goals-market edges compare our Poisson read against API-Football's own over/under prices per fixture. An empty list is the normal state of an efficient market, not a failure.
- InjuriesAPI-Football — injuries & suspensions
- Team news from API-Football (/injuries): players ruled out or carrying a late fitness doubt, deduped to each player's latest status. Availability materially affects match outcomes.
- SignalsFusion — Market + Model live · Social & Online coming
- CacheOut fuses independent signals per match. Two are live and genuinely fused: the Market signal (a de-vigged consensus of bookmaker odds) and a second Model read (API-Football's own win/draw/loss prediction). The Social signal (sentiment across X, Reddit, TikTok and YouTube) and the Online signal (virtual online-league results) are modelled placeholders, shown but not yet contributing, until their feeds are connected.
X
What the numbers mean
Every term on a match card, in plain language. The same definitions power the in-app tooltips.
- Win / Draw / LossW/D/L
- The chance the home team wins, the match is drawn, or the away team wins. The three add up to 100% — they are a de-vigged consensus of bookmaker moneyline odds.
- Expected goalsxG
- The average number of goals the model expects each team to score in this match. It is the scoring rate that feeds every goal market below — not a prediction of the exact final score.
- Both teams to scoreBTTS
- The probability that both teams score at least one goal (i.e. the final score is not a clean sheet for either side).
- Clean sheetCS
- The probability a team concedes zero goals — i.e. keeps a clean sheet. 'CS BRA' is the chance Brazil's opponent fails to score.
- Over / UnderO2.5
- The probability the two teams combine for more than a given number of goals. 'O2.5' is the chance of 3 or more total goals; the Under is simply 100% minus the Over.
- Most likely scorelineMost likely scoreline
- The single exact score with the highest probability under the model. Even the likeliest scoreline is usually well under 20% — football is high-variance, so treat it as the modal guess, not a forecast.
- Correct-score gridCorrect-score grid
- A heatmap of every exact scoreline's probability (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Brighter cells are more likely; it is the full picture the 'most likely scoreline' is drawn from.
- De-vigged (vig removed)VIG
- Bookmakers price every market slightly above 100% — that overround is their margin (the 'vig'). We strip it out so the probabilities are fair and sum to exactly 100%. The 'VIG' figure is how much was removed.
- Bookmaker consensusbooks
- These numbers are not one bookmaker's view — they are an average across every bookmaker that priced the market. 'N books' is how many fed this fixture; more books means a more reliable consensus.
- Consensus odds (decimal)ODDS
- The actual decimal price a bet would get, averaged across bookmakers — still including the margin. Decimal odds of 2.50 means a winning £1 stake returns £2.50 (£1.50 profit). These are the real prices behind the de-vigged percentages.
- Win probabilityWin %
- Each team's chance of winning the game, from a de-vigged consensus of bookmaker moneylines. The NFL market is two-way (no draw priced), so the two percentages add up to 100%. The split bar underneath shows the same number visually — the centre tick is 50/50.
- Point spreadSpread
- The bookmakers' points handicap for the game, shown against the home team. 'Chiefs -3.5' means the market makes the Chiefs a 3.5-point favourite: they must win by 4+ to 'cover'. A plus number means the home side is the underdog and can lose by up to that many points and still cover.
- Cover probabilityCover %
- The chance the home team beats the spread — wins by more than the handicap — de-vigged from the spread market's two prices. It hovers near 50% by design: bookmakers set the line so both sides are roughly a coin flip.
- Game total (over/under)O/U
- The market line for the two teams' combined points, priced as Over or Under. 'O 44.5 52%' means a 52% de-vigged chance the teams combine for 45+ points. Higher totals mean the market expects a shootout; lower, a defensive grind.
- Model pickModel pick
- The side the de-vigged bookmaker consensus makes the favourite, with its win probability. Because these probabilities come from the market itself, betting the pick at market prices has no built-in edge — it is a read on expectations, not betting advice.
- Playoff seedSeed
- The team's current playoff position in its conference: seeds 1–4 go to the four division winners (ordered by record), seeds 5–7 to the three best non-winners (wild cards). Seven teams per conference make the playoffs; the 1 seed gets the only first-round bye.
- Point differential+/-
- Season points scored minus points allowed. A positive number means the team has outscored its opponents overall — a steadier quality signal than the win-loss record, which can swing on close games.
- Anytime touchdownAnytime TD
- The probability a player scores a touchdown at any point in their next game, de-vigged from bookmaker anytime-TD props. Rushing and receiving TDs count; a quarterback's passing TDs do not.
- Before kickoffBefore kickoff
- The call was written to the database while the game was still unplayed, and the timestamp says when. It matters because the alternative is pricing a finished game from odds that outlive it: honest, but reconstructed, and you would have only our word that the number was not chosen once the score was known. Only a captured call can be graded without that caveat.
- Brier scoreBrier
- The average squared error of the stated probability. Lower is better, and 0.250 is what you would score by calling everything a coin flip. It exists because a hit rate alone flatters a 51% call that wins and punishes a 90% call that loses, when the first was barely an opinion and the second was a real claim.
- Closing-line valueCLV
- How the board's price compares with where the market finished before kickoff. The closing line is the sharpest price a market produces, so beating it consistently is the usual evidence that a model knows something. Measured in percentage points, and over a small sample it is mostly noise.
- Closing lineClosing line
- The last price the market showed before kickoff. It is the price the most money has been bet into, which is why it is treated as the market's best guess and used as the benchmark rather than the opening price.
- Fair priceFair
- The decimal odds a probability implies with no margin attached — 50% is 2.00, 80% is 1.25. A bet struck at the fair price has an expected value of exactly zero by construction, so a profit at fair prices is variance rather than edge. A real bookmaker prices below fair; that difference is how they make money.
- Unitu
- One flat stake. Results are quoted in units rather than currency because this site has never taken a bet and a pound sign would imply that it had. Ten units a call means every call is staked the same, so no single result can dominate the record.
- Return on investmentROI
- Profit divided by everything staked, not by the number of bets. Backing ten calls at ten units each stakes 100 units, so a 12-unit profit is a 12% ROI. It is the figure that makes a long run of small stakes comparable with a short run of large ones.
- Hit rateAccuracy
- The share of calls that named the winner. Read it beside the Brier score rather than alone: a board that only ever calls heavy favourites will post a high hit rate while saying almost nothing, and one that takes real positions will post a lower one while being better informed.
- CoverageCoverage
- How much of the finished slate could be graded at all. A game the odds feed never quoted carries no call, so nothing was ever claimed about it and it counts as neither a hit nor a miss. Coverage sits beside the record because a board can always look more accurate by saying less.
- No priceNo price
- No bookmaker in the feed was quoting this game when the board last looked, so there is no market to de-vig and the board makes no call. It is ordinary rather than broken — this feed carries a minority of the college slate — and a game with no price never enters the record.
- Cash-out windowCash-out window
- A published call that is now worth more in play than the price it was published at, while the game is still running. That is the only period in which a sportsbook's cash-out is worth taking: once the whistle goes the bet simply settles and there was never a decision to make. The board reports the window; the exit happens at your own sportsbook.
- Variance, not edgeVariance
- A run of winning calls priced from de-vigged odds is not evidence of beating the market. The fair price already contains everything the market knows, so betting it breaks even in the long run and any short-run profit is the swing you would expect from chance. The record here measures whether the probabilities are well calibrated, not whether following them makes money.
XI
What the numbers say today
How well the stated probabilities are calibrated, whether they beat the closing line, how each signal scores on its own, and what a flat stake on every call would have come to. Including the numbers that are unflattering.
The record, by phase
| Record | W–L | Hit rate | Profit | ROI | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular and postseason | 14–4 | 77.8% | +50.96u | 28.3% | 0.214 |
| Thinly priced | 16–14 | 53.3% | −62.02u | −20.7% | 0.240 |
| Preseason | 8–14 | 36.4% | −85.53u | −38.9% | 0.265 |
| Every call | 38–32 | 54.3% | −96.59u | −13.8% | 0.241 |
Thinly priced calls are counted separately. A bulk run wrote most of this season’s calls in a single day, for games still weeks away, storing whatever price existed at the time — a median of two bookmakers, against the eleven a game carries when it is read an hour before kickoff. Two quotes taken weeks out is a reading, not a market, and a headline resting on them would rest mostly on prices nobody was seriously offering.
They went 16–14 over 30 settled calls, against 14–4 for the fully priced ones — so on strike rate the thin ones look better, and this split is not a way of tucking a worse number out of sight. An early line is at its most lopsided before a real market forms, so those calls are mostly heavy favourites priced cheap: they win often and return little, which flatters a hit rate while saying very little about whether the board can price a game. That is why they are separated on how they were priced rather than on how they turned out. Nothing is deleted — a call, once published, stays published — and every one is in the list below.
Preseason is counted separately because it is barely the same contest: starters sit, rosters turn over by the quarter, and the result carries little information about the teams that play in September. The board priced 22 of them and went 8–14. It is shown rather than dropped — a record you are allowed to edit is not a record — but reading it beside the regular season as one number would describe neither.
Every settled call, newest first (70)
| Date | Call | Said | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Sept | Chicago Bears over Philadelphia Eagles | 52% | ✓ Won | 27–7 |
| 27 Sept | Los Angeles Rams over Denver Broncos | 59% | ✕ Lost | 26–30 |
| 27 Sept | Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys | 55% | ✓ Won | 34–31 |
| 27 Sept | New Orleans Saints over Las Vegas Raiders | 63% | ✕ Lost | 27–35 |
| 27 Sept | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Minnesota Vikings | 55% | ✕ Lost | 16–23 |
| 27 Sept | San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals | 82% | ✓ Won | 36–30 |
| 27 Sept | Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Chargers | 60% | ✓ Won | 24–16 |
| 27 Sept | Jacksonville Jaguars over New England Patriots | 52% | ✓ Won | 35–6 |
| 27 Sept | Seattle Seahawks over Washington Commanders | 62% | ✕ Lost | 31–33 |
| 27 Sept | New York Giants over Tennessee Titans | 61% | ✓ Won | 12–7 |
| 27 Sept | Detroit Lions over New York Jets | 79% | ✓ Won | 31–24 |
| 27 Sept | Carolina Panthers over Cleveland Browns | 55% | ✕ Lost | 18–21 |
| 27 Sept | Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers | 53% | ✕ Lost | 27–30 |
| 27 Sept | Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins | 77% | ✓ Won | 24–10 |
| 27 Sept | Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts | 52% | ✕ Lost | 17–19 |
| 24 Sept | Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons | 75% | ✕ Lost | 14–35 |
| 21 Sept | Los Angeles Rams over New York Giants | 77% | ✓ Won | 28–6 |
| 20 Sept | Kansas City Chiefs over Indianapolis Colts | 73% | ✓ Won | 33–30 |
| 20 Sept | Dallas Cowboys over Washington Commanders | 64% | ✓ Won | 37–20 |
| 20 Sept | San Francisco 49ers over Miami Dolphins | 82% | ✓ Won | 35–13 |
| 20 Sept | Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals | 81% | ✓ Won | 31–7 |
| 20 Sept | Los Angeles Chargers over Las Vegas Raiders | 77% | ✕ Lost | 14–26 |
| 20 Sept | Denver Broncos over Jacksonville Jaguars | 58% | ✓ Won | 20–13 |
| 20 Sept | New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers | 68% | ✓ Won | 20–3 |
| 20 Sept | Baltimore Ravens over New Orleans Saints | 75% | ✕ Lost | 17–24 |
| 20 Sept | Houston Texans over Cincinnati Bengals | 56% | ✕ Lost | 6–20 |
| 20 Sept | Chicago Bears over Minnesota Vikings | 64% | ✕ Lost | 3–9 |
| 20 Sept | Green Bay Packers over New York Jets | 69% | ✓ Won | 20–17 |
| 20 Sept | Philadelphia Eagles over Tennessee Titans | 66% | ✓ Won | 24–20 |
| 20 Sept | Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers | 53% | ✕ Lost | 3–34 |
| 20 Sept | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Cleveland Browns | 70% | ✕ Lost | 19–23 |
| 17 Sept | Buffalo Bills over Detroit Lions | 59% | ✓ Won | 41–31 |
| 14 Sept | Kansas City Chiefs over Denver Broncos | 56% | ✓ Won | 31–10 |
| 13 Sept | Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants | 58% | ✕ Lost | 20–28 |
| 13 Sept | Las Vegas Raiders over Miami Dolphins | 63% | ✓ Won | 27–13 |
| 13 Sept | Los Angeles Chargers over Arizona Cardinals | 81% | ✕ Lost | 14–26 |
| 13 Sept | Minnesota Vikings over Green Bay Packers | 52% | ✓ Won | 39–22 |
| 13 Sept | Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Commanders | 66% | ✓ Won | 24–22 |
| 13 Sept | Buffalo Bills over Houston Texans | 51% | ✓ Won | 36–31 |
| 13 Sept | Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts | 62% | ✓ Won | 41–23 |
| 13 Sept | Detroit Lions over New Orleans Saints | 73% | ✓ Won | 31–30 |
| 13 Sept | Tennessee Titans over New York Jets | 55% | ✕ Lost | 10–23 |
| 13 Sept | Pittsburgh Steelers over Atlanta Falcons | 60% | ✓ Won | 20–13 |
| 13 Sept | Cincinnati Bengals over Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 64% | ✓ Won | 33–27 |
| 13 Sept | Chicago Bears over Carolina Panthers | 58% | ✓ Won | 59–37 |
| 13 Sept | Jacksonville Jaguars over Cleveland Browns | 76% | ✓ Won | 34–10 |
| 10 Sept | Los Angeles Rams over San Francisco 49ers | 64% | ✕ Lost | 7–27 |
| 9 Sept | Seattle Seahawks over New England Patriots | 63% | ✓ Won | 13–10 |
| 29 Aug | Tennessee Titans over Chicago BearsPreseason | 57% | ✕ Lost | 15–24 |
| 29 Aug | Indianapolis Colts over Detroit LionsPreseason | 62% | ✕ Lost | 16–25 |
| 28 Aug | Denver Broncos over Minnesota VikingsPreseason | 62% | ✓ Won | 34–6 |
| 28 Aug | Green Bay Packers over Arizona CardinalsPreseason | 51% | ✓ Won | 42–38 |
| 28 Aug | Dallas Cowboys over New Orleans SaintsPreseason | 57% | ✕ Lost | 24–27 |
| 28 Aug | Philadelphia Eagles over Cincinnati BengalsPreseason | 56% | ✕ Lost | 13–30 |
| 28 Aug | New York Giants over New York JetsPreseason | 59% | ✓ Won | 23–6 |
| 28 Aug | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Jacksonville JaguarsPreseason | 58% | ✕ Lost | 0–19 |
| 28 Aug | Houston Texans over Carolina PanthersPreseason | 51% | ✕ Lost | 13–16 |
| 28 Aug | Atlanta Falcons over Miami DolphinsPreseason | 63% | ✓ Won | 17–12 |
| 28 Aug | Baltimore Ravens over Washington CommandersPreseason | 59% | ✓ Won | 41–3 |
| 27 Aug | Los Angeles Chargers over Los Angeles RamsPreseason | 61% | ✕ Lost | 18–20 |
| 27 Aug | Buffalo Bills over Pittsburgh SteelersPreseason | 58% | ✓ Won | 28–27 |
| 22 Aug | Arizona Cardinals over Dallas CowboysPreseason | 50% | ✕ Lost | 13–34 |
| 22 Aug | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Kansas City ChiefsPreseason | 67% | ✓ Won | 16–15 |
| 22 Aug | Philadelphia Eagles over New England PatriotsPreseason | 54% | ✕ Lost | 21–24 |
| 22 Aug | Chicago Bears over Cincinnati BengalsPreseason | 53% | ✕ Lost | 9–27 |
| 22 Aug | New Orleans Saints over Los Angeles RamsPreseason | 54% | ✕ Lost | 0–34 |
| 22 Aug | New York Giants over Miami DolphinsPreseason | 61% | ✓ Won | 26–3 |
| 22 Aug | Minnesota Vikings over Baltimore RavensPreseason | 61% | ✕ Lost | 3–13 |
| 22 Aug | Cleveland Browns over Buffalo BillsPreseason | 58% | ✕ Lost | 7–31 |
| 22 Aug | Indianapolis Colts over Atlanta FalconsPreseason | 62% | ✕ Lost | 6–34 |
| Record | W–L | Hit rate | Profit | ROI | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular and postseason | 60–13 | 82.2% | +85.93u | 11.8% | 0.135 |
| Thinly priced | 28–4 | 87.5% | +22.99u | 7.2% | 0.091 |
| Every call | 88–17 | 83.8% | +108.91u | 10.4% | 0.121 |
Thinly priced calls are counted separately. A bulk run wrote most of this season’s calls in a single day, for games still weeks away, storing whatever price existed at the time — a median of two bookmakers, against the eleven a game carries when it is read an hour before kickoff. Two quotes taken weeks out is a reading, not a market, and a headline resting on them would rest mostly on prices nobody was seriously offering.
They went 28–4 over 32 settled calls, against 60–13 for the fully priced ones — so on strike rate the thin ones look better, and this split is not a way of tucking a worse number out of sight. An early line is at its most lopsided before a real market forms, so those calls are mostly heavy favourites priced cheap: they win often and return little, which flatters a hit rate while saying very little about whether the board can price a game. That is why they are separated on how they were priced rather than on how they turned out. Nothing is deleted — a call, once published, stays published — and every one is in the list below.
Every settled call, newest first (105)
| Date | Call | Said | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sept | Washington over Minnesota | 76% | ✕ Lost | 24–27 |
| 26 Sept | Georgia Tech over Stanford | 61% | ✕ Lost | 27–34 |
| 26 Sept | Air Force over Nevada | 67% | ✓ Won | 36–33 |
| 26 Sept | Fresno State over Jerry Rice Team | 81% | ✓ Won | 38–24 |
| 26 Sept | Oregon State over UTEP | 78% | ✓ Won | 33–7 |
| 26 Sept | SMU over Missouri State | 95% | ✓ Won | 34–24 |
| 26 Sept | Alabama over South Carolina | 78% | ✓ Won | 49–18 |
| 26 Sept | Penn State over Wisconsin | 79% | ✕ Lost | 20–24 |
| 26 Sept | Michigan over Iowa | 65% | ✕ Lost | 19–20 |
| 26 Sept | Florida over Ole Miss | 53% | ✓ Won | 52–28 |
| 26 Sept | UCLA over Maryland | 52% | ✓ Won | 54–3 |
| 26 Sept | Boise State over Western Michigan | 73% | ✓ Won | 32–7 |
| 25 Sept | Navy over UAB | 70% | ✕ Lost | 20–24 |
| 25 Sept | Army over Temple | 58% | ✓ Won | 21–17 |
| 19 Sept | Fresno State over San José State | 68% | ✓ Won | 26–10 |
| 19 Sept | UCLA over Purdue | 82% | ✓ Won | 52–38 |
| 19 Sept | Arizona over Northern Illinois | 97% | ✓ Won | 42–17 |
| 19 Sept | San Diego State over James Madison | 53% | ✕ Lost | 13–26 |
| 19 Sept | TCU over Arkansas State | 88% | ✓ Won | 31–7 |
| 19 Sept | Texas over UTSA | 94% | ✓ Won | 30–6 |
| 19 Sept | Tennessee over Kennesaw State | 98% | ✓ Won | 42–9 |
| 19 Sept | Notre Dame over Michigan State | 93% | ✓ Won | 27–10 |
| 19 Sept | Virginia over West Virginia | 50% | ✕ Lost | 27–38 |
| 19 Sept | BYU over Colorado State | 87% | ✓ Won | 41–23 |
| 19 Sept | Northwestern over Colorado | 61% | ✓ Won | 41–7 |
| 19 Sept | Virginia Tech over Maryland | 53% | ✓ Won | 35–26 |
| 19 Sept | Oklahoma over New Mexico | 91% | ✓ Won | 14–6 |
| 19 Sept | LSU over Ole Miss | 54% | ✕ Lost | 24–32 |
| 19 Sept | Nebraska over North Dakota | 93% | ✓ Won | 34–7 |
| 19 Sept | UCF over Georgia State | 87% | ✓ Won | 44–30 |
| 19 Sept | Western Michigan over Jerry Rice Team | 75% | ✓ Won | 28–21 |
| 19 Sept | South Alabama over Ohio | 69% | ✓ Won | 41–36 |
| 19 Sept | UConn over Southern Miss | 59% | ✓ Won | 48–20 |
| 19 Sept | Jacksonville State over Georgia Southern | 60% | ✓ Won | 31–27 |
| 19 Sept | Missouri over Troy | 94% | ✓ Won | 27–17 |
| 19 Sept | Florida over Auburn | 54% | ✓ Won | 44–39 |
| 19 Sept | Marshall over Missouri State | 62% | ✓ Won | 30–24 |
| 19 Sept | Florida Atlantic over Florida International | 68% | ✓ Won | 16–10 |
| 19 Sept | Old Dominion over East Carolina | 56% | ✕ Lost | 17–20 |
| 19 Sept | Appalachian State over Charlotte | 87% | ✓ Won | 26–21 |
| 19 Sept | South Carolina over Mississippi State | 62% | ✕ Lost | 34–41 |
| 19 Sept | Iowa over Northern Iowa | 50% | ✓ Won | 55–0 |
| 19 Sept | Baylor over Louisiana Tech | 89% | ✓ Won | 36–19 |
| 19 Sept | Duke over Stanford | 75% | ✓ Won | 35–7 |
| 19 Sept | Texas A&M over Kentucky | 85% | ✕ Lost | 21–31 |
| 19 Sept | Utah over Utah State | 94% | ✓ Won | 33–0 |
| 19 Sept | Michigan over UTEP | 98% | ✓ Won | 52–17 |
| 19 Sept | Alabama over Florida State | 86% | ✓ Won | 50–36 |
| 19 Sept | USC over Rutgers | 91% | ✓ Won | 42–35 |
| 19 Sept | UMass over Stonehill | 98% | ✓ Won | 36–14 |
| 19 Sept | Louisville over SMU | 52% | ✓ Won | 41–31 |
| 19 Sept | Toledo over Temple | 66% | ✓ Won | 49–48 |
| 19 Sept | Wyoming over Central Michigan | 51% | ✕ Lost | 10–24 |
| 19 Sept | Wisconsin over Eastern Michigan | 93% | ✓ Won | 54–10 |
| 19 Sept | Texas State over North Texas | 57% | ✓ Won | 49–35 |
| 19 Sept | Georgia over Arkansas | 92% | ✓ Won | 45–17 |
| 19 Sept | Arizona State over Kansas | 64% | ✓ Won | 24–17 |
| 19 Sept | Minnesota over Akron | 93% | ✓ Won | 41–7 |
| 19 Sept | Clemson over North Carolina | 59% | ✓ Won | 28–20 |
| 19 Sept | Iowa State over Bowling Green | 93% | ✓ Won | 55–7 |
| 19 Sept | Kansas State over Tulane | 90% | ✓ Won | 31–20 |
| 19 Sept | Delaware over Coastal Carolina | 63% | ✓ Won | 22–14 |
| 18 Sept | Texas Tech over Houston | 81% | ✓ Won | 28–26 |
| 17 Sept | Pittsburgh over Syracuse | 76% | ✓ Won | 27–13 |
| 12 Sept | Utah over Arkansas | 79% | ✓ Won | 43–10 |
| 12 Sept | North Dakota State over Air Force | 53% | ✓ Won | 38–32 |
| 12 Sept | UTEP over Texas Southern | 94% | ✓ Won | 51–10 |
| 12 Sept | Auburn over Southern Miss | 96% | ✓ Won | 43–8 |
| 12 Sept | Navy over Florida Atlantic | 64% | ✕ Lost | 30–38 |
| 12 Sept | Iowa over Iowa State | 82% | ✓ Won | 16–13 |
| 12 Sept | Coastal Carolina over Fordham | 97% | ✓ Won | 45–7 |
| 12 Sept | Clemson over Georgia Southern | 89% | ✓ Won | 22–7 |
| 12 Sept | LSU over Louisiana Tech | 96% | ✓ Won | 45–14 |
| 12 Sept | Texas Tech over Oregon State | 93% | ✓ Won | 35–24 |
| 12 Sept | Texas over Ohio State | 52% | ✓ Won | 24–23 |
| 12 Sept | Wisconsin over Western Illinois | 98% | ✓ Won | 36–9 |
| 12 Sept | UCLA over San Diego State | 79% | ✓ Won | 28–10 |
| 12 Sept | Tulane over South Alabama | 76% | ✓ Won | 28–24 |
| 12 Sept | Tulsa over Sam Houston | 81% | ✓ Won | 23–17 |
| 12 Sept | Kennesaw State over Georgia State | 73% | ✕ Lost | 17–31 |
| 12 Sept | Nebraska over Bowling Green | 95% | ✓ Won | 56–7 |
| 12 Sept | Tennessee over Georgia Tech | 79% | ✓ Won | 45–24 |
| 12 Sept | Colorado State over Southern Utah | 90% | ✓ Won | 58–24 |
| 12 Sept | Arkansas State over West Georgia | 95% | ✓ Won | 52–7 |
| 12 Sept | Illinois State over Northern Illinois | 63% | ✓ Won | 28–24 |
| 12 Sept | Boise State over Memphis | 74% | ✓ Won | 38–20 |
| 12 Sept | Florida International over Buffalo State | 76% | ✓ Won | 33–20 |
| 12 Sept | Ohio over Jacksonville State | 55% | ✓ Won | 29–27 |
| 12 Sept | Vanderbilt over Delaware | 90% | ✓ Won | 35–26 |
| 12 Sept | SMU over UC Davis | 94% | ✓ Won | 56–10 |
| 12 Sept | Wyoming over Northern Colorado | 92% | ✓ Won | 21–13 |
| 12 Sept | UNLV over North Texas | 59% | ✕ Lost | 6–44 |
| 12 Sept | Colorado over Weber State | 97% | ✓ Won | 52–21 |
| 12 Sept | Pittsburgh over UCF | 70% | ✓ Won | 12–7 |
| 12 Sept | UMass over Sacred Heart | 92% | ✓ Won | 37–10 |
| 12 Sept | Washington over Utah State | 94% | ✓ Won | 16–14 |
| 12 Sept | Alabama over Kentucky | 76% | ✓ Won | 45–17 |
| 12 Sept | UAB over UL Monroe | 75% | ✓ Won | 26–20 |
| 12 Sept | Texas State over UTSA | 53% | ✕ Lost | 26–31 |
| 12 Sept | Akron over Robert Morris | 95% | ✓ Won | 45–10 |
| 12 Sept | Maryland over UConn | 78% | ✓ Won | 38–14 |
| 12 Sept | Michigan State over Eastern Michigan | 86% | ✓ Won | 35–7 |
| 12 Sept | Syracuse over California | 61% | ✕ Lost | 18–21 |
| 12 Sept | BYU over Arizona | 71% | ✓ Won | 28–17 |
| 12 Sept | Mississippi State over Minnesota | 50% | ✓ Won | 38–13 |
Closing-line value
- Games closed
- 52
- Mean CLV
- -0.07pp
- Beat the close
- 48%
The closing line is the market's last and best-informed price on a game. If our number consistently sits ahead of where the market ends up, that is evidence of an edge before any results are in — and it shows up in dozens of games where a win rate needs hundreds. Above 50% beaten, and a positive mean, is the signal. Below it is evidence the other way, however the games happened to land.
Signal by signal
| Signal | Games | Record | Accuracy | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market consensus | 70 | 38–32 | 54% | 0.241 |
| News read | 13 | 6–7 | 46% | 0.258 |
| Line movement | 28 | 18–10 | 64% | — |
| Public lean | 16 | 5–11 | 31% | — |
What the calls would have been worth
Open the ledger (175 settled calls, flat 10-unit stakes)
Read the two lines together. Every call here was stored before kickoff, flat-staked at 10 units, and settled against the real final score. But we do not take bets and we do not store the price a bookmaker was offering — only the de-vigged consensus probability. The upper line prices each call at the fair odds that probability implies, and a bet struck at fair odds has an expected value of exactly zero by construction. So a profit there is variance, not edge. The lower line is the same run of results after a book takes a 4.5% margin, which is nearer what the same calls would actually have been struck at. These are units, not money, and nobody placed them.
- Settled
- 175
- Record
- 126–49
- StakedUnitOne flat stake. Results are quoted in units rather than currency because this site has never taken a bet and a pound sign would imply that it had. Ten units a call means every call is staked the same, so no single result can dominate the record.
- 1750u
- Net, fair oddsFair priceThe decimal odds a probability implies with no margin attached — 50% is 2.00, 80% is 1.25. A bet struck at the fair price has an expected value of exactly zero by construction, so a profit at fair prices is variance rather than edge. A real bookmaker prices below fair; that difference is how they make money.
- +12.32u
- Net, at a bookVariance, not edgeA run of winning calls priced from de-vigged odds is not evidence of beating the market. The fair price already contains everything the market knows, so betting it breaks even in the long run and any short-run profit is the swing you would expect from chance. The record here measures whether the probabilities are well calibrated, not whether following them makes money.
- -63.57u
Hover the curve for the call at that point.
The graded record itself, every prediction and every alert, is on the record page.
XII
The honest part
- No secret edge. The market read is built from de-vigged bookmaker odds, so it largely agrees with the market — by construction. It measures probability and variance. It is not a way to beat a bookmaker, and nothing here claims to be.
- The record is thin, and says so. Calls stored before kickoff are labelled captured; older ones were priced after the game from odds that outlive it and are labelled reconstructions. Closing-line value is published from the first handful of games, and a handful is not a sample. Nothing is hidden because it is unflattering.
- Power ratings are an estimate, and marked est. They are built from scorelines and know nothing about a quarterback ruled out on the Friday. They are never blended into a market price, because a rating and a price are different kinds of claim.
- Several boards are switched off. Edges, line movement and touchdown props all needed prices the current feed does not carry. They say so, with the reason, rather than rendering an empty screen and letting you assume it is broken.
- Alerts report a position, not advice. Whether a guaranteed smaller return beats a likely larger one depends on your situation, not ours — and the cash-out itself happens at your sportsbook, which we have no connection to.
- Not betting advice. This is an information and entertainment project. 21+ where permitted, and please play responsibly.